diff --git a/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json b/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json index 1b361245..0134c6f2 100644 --- a/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json +++ b/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json @@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ { "name": "ecc", "source": "./", - "description": "Harness-native ECC operator layer - 60 agents, 232 skills, 75 legacy command shims, reusable hooks, rules, selective install profiles, and production-ready workflows for Claude Code, Codex, OpenCode, Cursor, and related agent harnesses", + "description": "Harness-native ECC operator layer - 60 agents, 243 skills, 75 legacy command shims, reusable hooks, rules, selective install profiles, and production-ready workflows for Claude Code, Codex, OpenCode, Cursor, and related agent harnesses", "version": "2.0.0-rc.1", "author": { "name": "Affaan Mustafa", diff --git a/.claude-plugin/plugin.json b/.claude-plugin/plugin.json index 09e435cd..b40a5e67 100644 --- a/.claude-plugin/plugin.json +++ b/.claude-plugin/plugin.json @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ { "name": "ecc", "version": "2.0.0-rc.1", - "description": "Harness-native ECC plugin for engineering teams - 60 agents, 232 skills, 75 legacy command shims, reusable hooks, rules, MCP conventions, and operator workflows for Claude Code plus adjacent agent harnesses", + "description": "Harness-native ECC plugin for engineering teams - 60 agents, 243 skills, 75 legacy command shims, reusable hooks, rules, MCP conventions, and operator workflows for Claude Code plus adjacent agent harnesses", "author": { "name": "Affaan Mustafa", "url": "https://x.com/affaanmustafa" diff --git a/AGENTS.md b/AGENTS.md index 65d314d6..e84d72ef 100644 --- a/AGENTS.md +++ b/AGENTS.md @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ # Everything Claude Code (ECC) — Agent Instructions -This is a **production-ready AI coding plugin** providing 60 specialized agents, 232 skills, 75 commands, and automated hook workflows for software development. +This is a **production-ready AI coding plugin** providing 60 specialized agents, 243 skills, 75 commands, and automated hook workflows for software development. **Version:** 2.0.0-rc.1 @@ -150,7 +150,7 @@ Troubleshoot failures: check test isolation → verify mocks → fix implementat ``` agents/ — 60 specialized subagents -skills/ — 232 workflow skills and domain knowledge +skills/ — 243 workflow skills and domain knowledge commands/ — 75 slash commands hooks/ — Trigger-based automations rules/ — Always-follow guidelines (common + per-language) diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index a7a4bb5d..a4d143dc 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -123,10 +123,12 @@ This repo is the raw code only. The guides explain everything. ### v2.0.0-rc.1 — Surface Refresh, Operator Workflows, and ECC 2.0 Alpha (Apr 2026) - **Dashboard GUI** — New Tkinter-based desktop application (`ecc_dashboard.py` or `npm run dashboard`) with dark/light theme toggle, font customization, and project logo in header and taskbar. -- **Public surface synced to the live repo** — metadata, catalog counts, plugin manifests, and install-facing docs now match the actual OSS surface: 60 agents, 232 skills, and 75 legacy command shims. +- **Public surface synced to the live repo** — metadata, catalog counts, plugin manifests, and install-facing docs now match the actual OSS surface: 60 agents, 243 skills, and 75 legacy command shims. - **Operator and outbound workflow expansion** — `brand-voice`, `social-graph-ranker`, `connections-optimizer`, `customer-billing-ops`, `ecc-tools-cost-audit`, `google-workspace-ops`, `project-flow-ops`, and `workspace-surface-audit` round out the operator lane. - **Media and launch tooling** — `manim-video`, `remotion-video-creation`, and upgraded social publishing surfaces make technical explainers and launch content part of the same system. - **Framework and product surface growth** — `nestjs-patterns`, richer Codex/OpenCode install surfaces, and expanded cross-harness packaging keep the repo usable beyond Claude Code alone. +- **Itô prediction-market skill pack** — `ito-market-intelligence`, `ito-basket-compare`, `ito-trade-planner`, `ito-data-atlas-agent`, `prediction-market-oracle-research`, and `prediction-market-risk-review` add public, non-advisory market/basket workflows while keeping live Itô API access gated and separate from ECC Tools billing. +- **Optimization skill pack** — `parallel-execution-optimizer`, `benchmark-optimization-loop`, `data-throughput-accelerator`, `latency-critical-systems`, and `recursive-decision-ledger` turn repeated speed/recursion prompts into bounded benchmark, throughput, and decision-ledger workflows. - **ECC 2.0 alpha is in-tree** — the Rust control-plane prototype in `ecc2/` now builds locally and exposes `dashboard`, `start`, `sessions`, `status`, `stop`, `resume`, and `daemon` commands. It is usable as an alpha, not yet a general release. - **Operator status snapshots** — `ecc status --markdown --write status.md` turns the local state store into a portable handoff covering readiness, active sessions, skill-run health, install health, pending governance events, and linked work items from Linear/GitHub/handoffs. Use `ecc work-items upsert ...` for manual entries, `ecc work-items sync-github --repo owner/repo` for PR/issue queue state, and `ecc status --exit-code` to fail automation when readiness needs attention. - **Ecosystem hardening** — AgentShield, ECC Tools cost controls, billing portal work, and website refreshes continue to ship around the core plugin instead of drifting into separate silos. @@ -392,7 +394,7 @@ If you stacked methods, clean up in this order: /plugin list ecc@ecc ``` -**That's it!** You now have access to 60 agents, 232 skills, and 75 legacy command shims. +**That's it!** You now have access to 60 agents, 243 skills, and 75 legacy command shims. ### Dashboard GUI @@ -1425,7 +1427,7 @@ The configuration is automatically detected from `.opencode/opencode.json`. |---------|-------------|----------|--------| | Agents | PASS: 60 agents | PASS: 12 agents | **Claude Code leads** | | Commands | PASS: 75 commands | PASS: 35 commands | **Claude Code leads** | -| Skills | PASS: 232 skills | PASS: 37 skills | **Claude Code leads** | +| Skills | PASS: 243 skills | PASS: 37 skills | **Claude Code leads** | | Hooks | PASS: 8 event types | PASS: 11 events | **OpenCode has more!** | | Rules | PASS: 29 rules | PASS: 13 instructions | **Claude Code leads** | | MCP Servers | PASS: 14 servers | PASS: Full | **Full parity** | @@ -1587,7 +1589,7 @@ ECC is the **first plugin to maximize every major AI coding tool**. Here's how e |---------|------------|------------|-----------|----------|----------------| | **Agents** | 60 | Shared (AGENTS.md) | Shared (AGENTS.md) | 12 | N/A | | **Commands** | 75 | Shared | Instruction-based | 35 | 6 prompts | -| **Skills** | 232 | Shared | 10 (native format) | 37 | Via instructions | +| **Skills** | 243 | Shared | 10 (native format) | 37 | Via instructions | | **Hook Events** | 8 types | 15 types | None yet | 11 types | None | | **Hook Scripts** | 20+ scripts | 16 scripts (DRY adapter) | N/A | Plugin hooks | N/A | | **Rules** | 34 (common + lang) | 34 (YAML frontmatter) | Instruction-based | 13 instructions | 1 always-on file | diff --git a/README.zh-CN.md b/README.zh-CN.md index e95bb588..2c3a6f33 100644 --- a/README.zh-CN.md +++ b/README.zh-CN.md @@ -160,7 +160,7 @@ Copy-Item -Recurse rules/typescript "$HOME/.claude/rules/" /plugin list ecc@ecc ``` -**完成！** 你现在可以使用 60 个代理、232 个技能和 75 个命令。 +**完成！** 你现在可以使用 60 个代理、243 个技能和 75 个命令。 ### multi-* 命令需要额外配置 diff --git a/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/ito-prediction-market-skill-pack.md b/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/ito-prediction-market-skill-pack.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3f49d1b7 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/ito-prediction-market-skill-pack.md @@ -0,0 +1,75 @@ +# Itô Prediction-Market Skill Pack + +This rc.1 note records a public teaser skill pack that connects ECC's skill +distribution loop with Itô prediction-market workflows while keeping the two +businesses separate. + +ECC remains the open agent-harness substrate and ECC Tools remains the hosted +GitHub App / Pro surface. Itô remains a separate prediction-market basket +business. The link is distribution: ECC can ship reusable skills that make +agents better at researching, comparing, explaining, and planning around +prediction-market baskets. Live Itô API access stays gated. + +## Included Skills + +| Skill | Use | +| --- | --- | +| `ito-market-intelligence` | Source-grounded event, underlier, venue, liquidity, and news context | +| `ito-basket-compare` | Compare baskets against a knowledge base, portfolio notes, financial context, or thesis | +| `ito-trade-planner` | Build a manual, non-advisory worksheet for market and venue review | +| `ito-data-atlas-agent` | Design background research/drafting agents with human edit points | +| `prediction-market-oracle-research` | Treat prediction markets as data/oracle inputs for agents and decision intelligence | +| `prediction-market-risk-review` | Review advice, venue, security, privacy, and execution boundaries | + +## Access Model + +The public skills work without Itô credentials for research and planning. Any +Itô-backed call requires explicit gated access: + +```bash +export ITO_API_KEY=... +``` + +Do not include live keys, account data, positions, private strategy, or venue +credentials in public docs, prompts, commits, slide decks, or support tickets. + +Suggested public CTA: + +> The Itô skill pack works as public research/planning workflows today. DM or +> request access for the Itô API key if you want live basket data. + +## Non-Advisory Boundary + +These skills do not provide investment, legal, tax, or trading advice. They do +not place trades. They can help a user: + +- inspect markets and underliers; +- compare a basket against their own notes or constraints; +- understand resolution and venue mechanics; +- use prediction-market signals as one input to a broader research process; +- draft a manual worksheet the user can review themselves. + +## Growth Loop + +The loop is intentionally simple: + +1. ECC users discover useful public prediction-market skills. +2. Builders run the skills with public sources and see the Itô-shaped workflow. +3. Serious users request gated API access for live Itô basket data. +4. Itô usage creates more operator patterns. +5. Sanitized patterns can become new ECC skills. + +This sends agent/tooling traffic toward Itô without making ECC Tools look like +an Itô product or mixing subscription ownership between businesses. + +## Useful Chain + +For a full workflow, chain: + +`deep-research` -> `x-api` or `exa-search` -> `ito-market-intelligence` -> +`ito-basket-compare` -> `prediction-market-risk-review` -> +`ito-trade-planner` + +For corporate or industry use cases, replace trade planning with +`prediction-market-oracle-research` and route the output into a dashboard, +decision memo, or agent memory record. diff --git a/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/linkedin-post.md b/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/linkedin-post.md index 78a64885..9ffbda2d 100644 --- a/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/linkedin-post.md +++ b/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/linkedin-post.md @@ -4,7 +4,8 @@ ECC v2.0.0-rc.1 is ready for final release review as the first release-candidate The practical shift is simple: ECC is no longer framed as only a Claude Code plugin or config bundle. -It is becoming a cross-harness operating system for agentic work: +It is becoming a meta-harness for agentic work: the portable layer above the +individual AI coding clients. - reusable skills instead of one-off prompts - hooks and tests instead of manual discipline @@ -22,10 +23,18 @@ I did not publish private workspace state. I shipped the reusable layer: - Hermes import guidance for turning local operator patterns into public ECC skills - release-readiness gates for PRs, issues, discussions, Linear progress, legacy tails, observability, and supply-chain checks - a deterministic preview-pack smoke test so the public pack can be verified before a release action +- a gated Itô prediction-market skill pack for research, comparison, planning, + and risk review, with Itô API access kept separate from ECC Tools and + approval-based The leverage is not just better prompting. -It is reducing the number of isolated surfaces, turning repeated workflows into reusable skills, and making the operating system around the agent measurable. +It is reducing the number of isolated surfaces, turning repeated workflows into +reusable skills, and making the operating system around the agent measurable. + +That is the reason I like the phrase meta-harness. The goal is not to replace +the harness. The goal is to make the workflow layer above the harness portable, +auditable, and useful across teams. The supply-chain work became part of the release story too. After the Mini Shai-Hulud/TanStack campaign, rc.1 now includes IOC scanning, no-lifecycle CI diff --git a/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/partner-sponsor-talks-pack.md b/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/partner-sponsor-talks-pack.md index ef7c47c7..f05eaceb 100644 --- a/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/partner-sponsor-talks-pack.md +++ b/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/partner-sponsor-talks-pack.md @@ -154,7 +154,11 @@ agentic work more measurable and portable. ```text ECC v2.0.0-rc.1 preview pack is ready for final release review. -The main point: ECC 2.0 is the harness-native operator system for agentic work. +The main point: ECC 2.0 is a meta-harness for agentic work. + +It is the portable layer that keeps skills, hooks, MCP conventions, release +gates, security checks, and team workflows reusable across the AI coding tools +people actually use. It now has a reviewed public surface for: @@ -164,12 +168,15 @@ It now has a reviewed public surface for: - Hermes as the optional operator shell; - release, security, queue, discussion, Linear, observability, and video-suite gates. +- a gated Itô prediction-market skill pack for research, comparison, planning, + and risk review, with Itô API access kept separate and approval-based. The release is still approval-gated until the GitHub prerelease, npm package, plugin paths, final URLs, and billing claims have live evidence. Feedback wanted: install friction, cross-harness gaps, partner integrations, -sponsor fit, and examples of teams using multiple AI coding harnesses. +sponsor fit, prediction-market research use cases, and examples of teams using +multiple AI coding harnesses. ``` ## Video CTA Hooks diff --git a/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/preview-pack-manifest.md b/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/preview-pack-manifest.md index 2bee8231..c337e3b0 100644 --- a/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/preview-pack-manifest.md +++ b/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/preview-pack-manifest.md @@ -42,6 +42,24 @@ surfaces, or posting announcements. | `docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/article-outline.md` | Longform launch outline | Must stay release-candidate framed until GA evidence exists | | `docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/telegram-handoff.md` | Internal/shareable handoff copy | Must not include private workspace or credential details | | `docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/demo-prompts.md` | Demo prompts and proof-of-work prompts | Must keep private Hermes workflows abstracted into public examples | +| `docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/ito-prediction-market-skill-pack.md` | Public Itô skill-pack distribution note | Keeps Itô API access gated, non-advisory, and separate from ECC Tools billing | + +## Itô Skill Pack Boundary + +The preview pack includes six public teaser skills for prediction-market and +Itô-adjacent workflows: + +- `skills/ito-market-intelligence/SKILL.md` +- `skills/ito-basket-compare/SKILL.md` +- `skills/ito-trade-planner/SKILL.md` +- `skills/ito-data-atlas-agent/SKILL.md` +- `skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md` +- `skills/prediction-market-risk-review/SKILL.md` + +They are research, comparison, planning, and risk-review skills. They do not +place trades, do not provide investment advice, and do not merge ECC Tools with +Itô. Any Itô-backed data call requires explicit gated API access through +`ITO_API_KEY`. ## Hermes Skill Boundary diff --git a/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/release-notes.md b/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/release-notes.md index eaed97b5..52133b68 100644 --- a/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/release-notes.md +++ b/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/release-notes.md @@ -16,6 +16,13 @@ Claude Code remains a core target. Codex, OpenCode, Cursor, Gemini, and other ha - Added Zed as a project-local planning/install target while keeping BYOK and OpenRouter secrets outside ECC-managed project files. - Added command-registry coverage, platform audit, discussion audit, operator dashboard, Linear progress readiness, and preview-pack smoke gates. - Added a local [observability readiness gate](../../architecture/observability-readiness.md) for loop status, session traces, harness audit, and ECC2 tool-risk logs. +- Added the public teaser [Itô prediction-market skill pack](ito-prediction-market-skill-pack.md) + for read-only basket research, comparison, oracle-style market intelligence, + and risk review. Live Itô API access remains gated and separate from ECC + Tools billing. +- Added the rollout-derived optimization skill pack: parallel execution, + benchmark loops, data-throughput acceleration, latency-critical systems, and + recursive decision ledgers. - Refreshed the release-readiness evidence after the May 2026 Mini Shai-Hulud/TanStack campaign follow-up, including full-campaign AgentShield IOC coverage, queue-zero/discussion checks, a detailed Linear roadmap gate, @@ -48,6 +55,8 @@ feature branch: - launch collateral for GitHub release copy, X, LinkedIn, article outline, Telegram/Hermes handoff, demo prompts, partner/sponsor/talk outreach, and the approval-gated launch checklist. +- gated Itô skill distribution as a public workflow teaser, not a live trading + claim or a merge of ECC Tools and Itô ownership. - a release URL ledger that separates links which already resolve from links that must wait for the GitHub release, npm rc package, plugin tag/directory, and ECC Tools billing readback. diff --git a/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/x-thread.md b/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/x-thread.md index fa2b1fd1..fa745dbd 100644 --- a/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/x-thread.md +++ b/docs/releases/2.0.0-rc.1/x-thread.md @@ -2,7 +2,8 @@ 1/ ECC v2.0.0-rc.1 is the first release-candidate pass at the 2.0 direction. -The repo is moving from a Claude Code config pack into a cross-harness operating system for agentic work. +The repo is moving from a Claude Code config pack into a meta-harness for +agentic work. 2/ The important split: @@ -11,17 +12,29 @@ Hermes is the operator shell that can run on top. Skills, hooks, MCP configs, rules, and workflow packs live in ECC. -3/ Claude Code is still a core target. +3/ A meta-harness matters because the agent layer is fragmenting. -Codex, OpenCode, Cursor, Gemini, and other harnesses are part of the same story now. +Claude Code, Codex, OpenCode, Cursor, Gemini, Zed, Copilot, and terminal +workflows all need similar operating primitives: -The goal is fewer one-off harness tricks and more reusable workflow surface. +- context +- tools +- memory +- gates +- evaluation +- release evidence +- security checks -4/ Since v1.10.0, the work also picked up the operator layer: +4/ ECC gives those primitives a shared shape instead of leaving every workflow +stuck inside one client. + +Use the harness you like. Keep the workflow layer portable. + +5/ Since v1.10.0, the work also picked up the operator layer: PR/issue/discussion audits, Linear progress sync, release evidence, observability checks, and a generated readiness dashboard. -5/ The security posture changed too. +6/ The security posture changed too. The Mini Shai-Hulud/TanStack campaign forced a real supply-chain loop: @@ -31,7 +44,7 @@ The Mini Shai-Hulud/TanStack campaign forced a real supply-chain loop: - npm audit/signature checks - AI-tool persistence targets -6/ The rc.1 surface ships the public pieces: +7/ The rc.1 surface ships the public pieces: - Hermes setup guide - release notes @@ -41,7 +54,23 @@ The Mini Shai-Hulud/TanStack campaign forced a real supply-chain loop: - preview-pack smoke gate - X, LinkedIn, and article drafts -7/ It does not ship private workspace state. +8/ It also adds the public teaser surface for the Itô prediction-market skill +pack. + +That is separate from ECC Tools billing and Itô remains a separate business. + +The public skills are research, comparison, planning, and risk review. + +9/ Important boundary: + +No investment advice. +No default live trading. +No private keys. +No Itô-backed call without explicit gated API access. + +Useful workflow shape first, gated data access second. + +10/ It does not ship private workspace state. No secrets. No OAuth tokens. @@ -50,25 +79,25 @@ No personal datasets. The point is to publish the reusable system shape. -8/ Why Hermes matters: +11/ Why Hermes matters: Most agent systems fail in the daily operating loop. They can code, but they do not keep research, content, handoffs, reminders, and execution in one measurable surface. -9/ ECC gives the reusable layer. +12/ ECC gives the reusable layer. Hermes gives the operator shell. Together they make the work feel less like scattered chat windows and more like a system you can run. -10/ This is still a release candidate. +13/ This is still a release candidate. The public docs and reusable surfaces are ready for review. The deeper local integrations stay local until they are sanitized, and publication still waits on the GitHub release, npm, plugin, and final URL gates. -11/ Start here: +14/ Start here: Repo: @@ -76,8 +105,11 @@ Repo: Hermes x ECC setup: -12/ Release notes: +15/ Release notes: +Itô skill pack boundary: + + URL ledger: diff --git a/docs/zh-CN/AGENTS.md b/docs/zh-CN/AGENTS.md index 14c22579..d78f87be 100644 --- a/docs/zh-CN/AGENTS.md +++ b/docs/zh-CN/AGENTS.md @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ # Everything Claude Code (ECC) — 智能体指令 -这是一个**生产就绪的 AI 编码插件**，提供 60 个专业代理、232 项技能、75 条命令以及自动化钩子工作流，用于软件开发。 +这是一个**生产就绪的 AI 编码插件**，提供 60 个专业代理、243 项技能、75 条命令以及自动化钩子工作流，用于软件开发。 **版本:** 2.0.0-rc.1 @@ -147,7 +147,7 @@ ``` agents/ — 60 个专业子代理 -skills/ — 232 个工作流技能和领域知识 +skills/ — 243 个工作流技能和领域知识 commands/ — 75 个斜杠命令 hooks/ — 基于触发的自动化 rules/ — 始终遵循的指导方针（通用 + 每种语言） diff --git a/docs/zh-CN/README.md b/docs/zh-CN/README.md index 0d70424e..51d13a5e 100644 --- a/docs/zh-CN/README.md +++ b/docs/zh-CN/README.md @@ -224,7 +224,7 @@ Copy-Item -Recurse rules/typescript "$HOME/.claude/rules/" /plugin list ecc@ecc ``` -**搞定！** 你现在可以使用 60 个智能体、232 项技能和 75 个命令了。 +**搞定！** 你现在可以使用 60 个智能体、243 项技能和 75 个命令了。 *** @@ -1138,7 +1138,7 @@ opencode |---------|-------------|----------|--------| | 智能体 | PASS: 60 个 | PASS: 12 个 | **Claude Code 领先** | | 命令 | PASS: 75 个 | PASS: 35 个 | **Claude Code 领先** | -| 技能 | PASS: 232 项 | PASS: 37 项 | **Claude Code 领先** | +| 技能 | PASS: 243 项 | PASS: 37 项 | **Claude Code 领先** | | 钩子 | PASS: 8 种事件类型 | PASS: 11 种事件 | **OpenCode 更多！** | | 规则 | PASS: 29 条 | PASS: 13 条指令 | **Claude Code 领先** | | MCP 服务器 | PASS: 14 个 | PASS: 完整 | **完全对等** | @@ -1246,7 +1246,7 @@ ECC 是**第一个最大化利用每个主要 AI 编码工具的插件**。以 |---------|------------|------------|-----------|----------| | **智能体** | 60 | 共享 (AGENTS.md) | 共享 (AGENTS.md) | 12 | | **命令** | 75 | 共享 | 基于指令 | 35 | -| **技能** | 232 | 共享 | 10 (原生格式) | 37 | +| **技能** | 243 | 共享 | 10 (原生格式) | 37 | | **钩子事件** | 8 种类型 | 15 种类型 | 暂无 | 11 种类型 | | **钩子脚本** | 20+ 个脚本 | 16 个脚本 (DRY 适配器) | N/A | 插件钩子 | | **规则** | 34 (通用 + 语言) | 34 (YAML 前页) | 基于指令 | 13 条指令 | diff --git a/manifests/install-components.json b/manifests/install-components.json index 0cc630a1..27396c2f 100644 --- a/manifests/install-components.json +++ b/manifests/install-components.json @@ -170,6 +170,22 @@ "operator-workflows" ] }, + { + "id": "capability:optimization", + "family": "capability", + "description": "Parallel execution, benchmarking, throughput, latency, and recursive decision-ledger skills.", + "modules": [ + "optimization-workflows" + ] + }, + { + "id": "capability:prediction-markets", + "family": "capability", + "description": "Public, non-advisory prediction-market and Itô basket research workflows with gated Itô API access.", + "modules": [ + "prediction-market-skills" + ] + }, { "id": "capability:social", "family": "capability", diff --git a/manifests/install-modules.json b/manifests/install-modules.json index c8330f35..91224655 100644 --- a/manifests/install-modules.json +++ b/manifests/install-modules.json @@ -279,6 +279,37 @@ "cost": "medium", "stability": "stable" }, + { + "id": "optimization-workflows", + "kind": "skills", + "description": "Parallel execution, benchmarking, data-throughput, latency, and recursive decision-ledger skills for faster evidence-backed work.", + "paths": [ + "skills/benchmark-optimization-loop", + "skills/data-throughput-accelerator", + "skills/latency-critical-systems", + "skills/parallel-execution-optimizer", + "skills/recursive-decision-ledger" + ], + "targets": [ + "claude", + "claude-project", + "cursor", + "antigravity", + "codex", + "opencode", + "codebuddy", + "joycode", + "qwen", + "zed" + ], + "dependencies": [ + "workflow-quality", + "operator-workflows" + ], + "defaultInstall": false, + "cost": "medium", + "stability": "beta" + }, { "id": "security", "kind": "skills", @@ -430,6 +461,39 @@ "cost": "medium", "stability": "beta" }, + { + "id": "prediction-market-skills", + "kind": "skills", + "description": "Public, non-advisory prediction-market and Itô basket research workflows with gated Itô API access.", + "paths": [ + "skills/ito-basket-compare", + "skills/ito-data-atlas-agent", + "skills/ito-market-intelligence", + "skills/ito-trade-planner", + "skills/prediction-market-oracle-research", + "skills/prediction-market-risk-review" + ], + "targets": [ + "claude", + "claude-project", + "cursor", + "antigravity", + "codex", + "opencode", + "codebuddy", + "joycode", + "qwen", + "zed" + ], + "dependencies": [ + "research-apis", + "business-content", + "security" + ], + "defaultInstall": false, + "cost": "medium", + "stability": "beta" + }, { "id": "social-distribution", "kind": "skills", diff --git a/manifests/install-profiles.json b/manifests/install-profiles.json index acf9b583..0ec84763 100644 --- a/manifests/install-profiles.json +++ b/manifests/install-profiles.json @@ -77,6 +77,8 @@ "research-apis", "business-content", "operator-workflows", + "optimization-workflows", + "prediction-market-skills", "social-distribution", "media-generation", "orchestration", diff --git a/package.json b/package.json index 203c2a27..56a22c9c 100644 --- a/package.json +++ b/package.json @@ -152,6 +152,7 @@ "skills/customs-trade-compliance/", "skills/dart-flutter-patterns/", "skills/dashboard-builder/", + "skills/data-throughput-accelerator/", "skills/data-scraper-agent/", "skills/database-migrations/", "skills/deep-research/", @@ -173,6 +174,7 @@ "skills/eval-harness/", "skills/evm-token-decimals/", "skills/exa-search/", + "skills/benchmark-optimization-loop/", "skills/fal-ai-media/", "skills/fastapi-patterns/", "skills/finance-billing-ops/", @@ -191,6 +193,10 @@ "skills/homelab-network-setup/", "skills/hookify-rules/", "skills/inventory-demand-planning/", + "skills/ito-basket-compare/", + "skills/ito-data-atlas-agent/", + "skills/ito-market-intelligence/", + "skills/ito-trade-planner/", "skills/investor-materials/", "skills/investor-outreach/", "skills/iterative-retrieval/", @@ -228,20 +234,25 @@ "skills/network-interface-health/", "skills/nodejs-keccak256/", "skills/nutrient-document-processing/", + "skills/latency-critical-systems/", "skills/perl-patterns/", "skills/perl-security/", "skills/perl-testing/", "skills/plankton-code-quality/", + "skills/parallel-execution-optimizer/", "skills/postgres-patterns/", "skills/prisma-patterns/", "skills/product-capability/", "skills/production-audit/", "skills/production-scheduling/", + "skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/", + "skills/prediction-market-risk-review/", "skills/project-flow-ops/", "skills/prompt-optimizer/", "skills/python-patterns/", "skills/python-testing/", "skills/quality-nonconformance/", + "skills/recursive-decision-ledger/", "skills/quarkus-patterns/", "skills/quarkus-security/", "skills/quarkus-tdd/", diff --git a/skills/benchmark-optimization-loop/SKILL.md b/skills/benchmark-optimization-loop/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..6014cb5e --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/benchmark-optimization-loop/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,69 @@ +--- +name: benchmark-optimization-loop +description: Use when the user asks to make something faster, try many variants, run recursive optimization, benchmark latency/throughput/cost, or choose the best implementation by repeated measured tests. +origin: ECC +tools: Read, Write, Edit, Bash, Grep, Glob +--- + +# Benchmark Optimization Loop + +Use this skill to convert "make it 20x faster" or "try 50 recursive +optimizations" into a bounded measured loop that can actually improve a system. + +## Required Baseline + +Do not optimize until these exist: + +- the operation being optimized; +- the correctness gate that must stay green; +- the metric: wall time, p95 latency, rows/sec, cost/run, memory, error rate; +- the current baseline; +- the search budget: max variants, max time, max spend, max data impact. + +If the user asks for an unrealistic target, keep the ambition but make the loop +bounded and measurable. + +## Loop + +1. Measure the baseline. +2. Identify bottlenecks from evidence. +3. Generate variants that test one hypothesis each. +4. Run variants with the same input shape. +5. Reject variants that fail correctness, safety, or reproducibility. +6. Promote the fastest safe variant. +7. Codify the winning path in a script, command, test, config, or doc. +8. Rerun the baseline and winner to confirm the delta. + +## Variant Table + +Track variants like this: + +```text +Variant | Hypothesis | Command | Time | Correct? | Notes +baseline | current path | npm run job | 120s | yes | stable +batch-500 | fewer round trips | npm run job -- --batch 500 | 42s | yes | winner +parallel-8 | more workers | npm run job -- --workers 8 | 31s | no | rate limited +``` + +## Recursive Search + +For recursive or hyperparameter work: + +- persist every run to a ledger; +- compare against the prior accepted winner, not only the previous run; +- keep a holdout or replay check; +- stop when improvement is within noise, correctness fails, cost exceeds the + budget, or the search starts changing more variables than it can explain. + +Use phrases like "best measured safe variant" instead of "global optimum" unless +the search space was actually exhaustive. + +## Promotion Gate + +A variant cannot become the new default until: + +- correctness tests pass; +- the performance delta is repeated or explained; +- rollback is obvious; +- the change is encoded in source control or a durable runbook; +- the final summary includes exact commands and measurements. diff --git a/skills/data-throughput-accelerator/SKILL.md b/skills/data-throughput-accelerator/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ee181308 --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/data-throughput-accelerator/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,72 @@ +--- +name: data-throughput-accelerator +description: Use when large data ingestion, backfill, export, ETL, warehouse loading, manifest catch-up, or table synchronization needs to become much faster while preserving data correctness. +origin: ECC +tools: Read, Write, Edit, Bash, Grep, Glob +--- + +# Data Throughput Accelerator + +Use this skill when the bottleneck is moving, transforming, or saving lots of +data. The goal is not just speed. The goal is faster correct data landing in the +right place with proof. + +## First Distinction + +Separate these before optimizing: + +- source extraction speed; +- network transfer speed; +- warehouse/load speed; +- transform speed; +- serving-table freshness; +- live tail growth while the job runs. + +A pipeline can be "fast" and still appear behind if new data arrives faster +than the final catch-up window. + +## Fast Path Heuristics + +- Move compute to where the data already is. +- Prefer warehouse-native scans, joins, and appends for large landed files. +- Use manifests or checkpoints so completed files/partitions are skipped. +- Use partitioning and clustering that match the read and append pattern. +- Batch small files, requests, and writes. +- Make writes idempotent through unique keys, manifests, or replaceable staging. +- Keep raw, derived, and serving tables separately accountable. + +## Workflow + +1. Read the current source, target, and manifest contracts. +2. Measure backlog: external files, manifest rows, raw rows, derived rows, + min/max timestamps, and unprocessed counts. +3. Run a safe catch-up or sample benchmark. +4. Compare variants: batch size, worker count, warehouse SQL, file grouping, + staging shape, and manifest update method. +5. Promote only the fastest path that keeps counts and timestamps coherent. +6. Codify the path as a CLI, scheduled job, workflow, or runbook. +7. Rerun final accounting after the codified path executes. + +## Accounting Output + +Use a hard accounting block: + +```text +Data throughput result: +- Source files discovered: 294 +- Files processed this run: 294 +- Raw rows added: 9,683,598 +- Derived rows added: 8,917,585 +- Remaining tail: 24 files at readback time +- Runtime: 38.7s +- Correctness gate: manifest counts and table max timestamps match +``` + +## Guardrails + +- Do not delete raw data to make a metric look better. +- Do not skip failed files silently. +- Do not mix historical backfill status with live-tail freshness. +- Do not call a pipeline complete until the target tables and manifest agree. +- For finance, healthcare, regulated, or customer-impacting data, preserve + replay evidence and approval gates. diff --git a/skills/ito-basket-compare/SKILL.md b/skills/ito-basket-compare/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..a154fed9 --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/ito-basket-compare/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,63 @@ +--- +name: ito-basket-compare +description: Compare Itô prediction-market baskets against a user's knowledge base, portfolio notes, financial context, watchlist, or research thesis. Use for read-only basket comparison and gap analysis without investment advice or live trading. +origin: ECC +--- + +# Itô Basket Compare + +Use this skill to compare a basket, theme, or market set against a user's +knowledge base, portfolio notes, research memo, CRM context, or stated thesis. + +This skill is read-only. It does not recommend trades. It helps a user inspect +fit, exposure, assumptions, and missing context before they decide what to do. + +## Guardrails + +- Do not provide investment advice or tell the user to buy, sell, hold, hedge, + lever, or size a trade. +- Do not execute, prepare, or submit orders. +- Do not use private documents unless the user explicitly points to them. +- Use `ITO_API_KEY` only for read-only Itô basket/market data after explicit + user request. +- If comparing against financials, preserve privacy and summarize only the + fields needed for the comparison. + +## Comparison Modes + +### Basket vs Knowledge Base + +1. Identify the basket theme and underliers. +2. Retrieve the user's relevant notes, docs, or memory snippets. +3. Map each underlier to claims, sources, uncertainties, and stale assumptions. +4. Return aligned signals, conflicting signals, and missing research. + +### Basket vs Portfolio Notes + +1. Parse the user's watchlist, holdings summary, or exposure notes. +2. Compare themes, geographies, time horizons, and event outcomes. +3. Flag concentration, correlation, and duplicated narrative exposure. +4. Avoid recommendations; phrase output as inspection and questions. + +### Basket vs Financial Context + +1. Accept only user-provided or explicitly selected financial context. +2. Identify liquidity, drawdown, time-horizon, and constraint mismatches. +3. Ask for missing constraints instead of guessing. + +## Output Contract + +Use this structure: + +1. Basket summary +2. Comparison target +3. Matches +4. Conflicts or stale assumptions +5. Missing context +6. User-action checklist + +End with: + +```text +This comparison is informational and not investment or trading advice. +``` diff --git a/skills/ito-data-atlas-agent/SKILL.md b/skills/ito-data-atlas-agent/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..1b7c7fd4 --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/ito-data-atlas-agent/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,63 @@ +--- +name: ito-data-atlas-agent +description: Design background Data Atlas style agents for Itô basket research, market discovery, parameter drafting, and human-in-the-loop editing. Use for architecture and workflow planning, not live order execution. +origin: ECC +--- + +# Itô Data Atlas Agent + +Use this skill to design an agent that watches data sources, builds candidate +prediction-market baskets, drafts parameter changes, and hands the result to a +human for review. + +This skill describes architecture and workflow. It does not run live trading. + +## Guardrails + +- Keep all execution behind explicit human approval. +- Require `ITO_API_KEY` only for read-only Itô data access unless a separate + private implementation explicitly adds execution controls. +- Do not persist private user data unless the target repo already has a storage + contract and the user asks for it. +- Do not expose private strategy logic, venue credentials, or local paths in + public docs. + +## Architecture Pattern + +Use four lanes: + +1. Research collector: public web, X, GitHub, venue docs, API metadata, and + Itô read endpoints when gated access exists. +2. Basket drafter: turns sources into candidate underliers, weights, rules, and + questions. +3. Risk reviewer: checks data freshness, venue limits, resolution ambiguity, + compliance notes, and prompt-injection exposure. +4. Human editor: opens a chat or UI state where the user can approve, reject, + adjust, or ask for more research. + +## Workflow + +1. Define the user objective and excluded actions. +2. List data sources and access requirements. +3. Draft a basket spec with provenance for every underlier. +4. Produce editable parameters rather than executable orders. +5. Store an audit trail: inputs, model output, sources, and human decision. + +## Useful Skill Chains + +- `deep-research` for source collection. +- `x-api` for current social/event signal. +- `ito-market-intelligence` for venue and underlier context. +- `ito-basket-compare` for user knowledge-base matching. +- `prediction-market-risk-review` before any execution-capable integration. + +## Output Contract + +Return an implementation-ready workflow spec with: + +- data sources +- access gates +- agent roles +- human approval points +- storage/audit boundary +- non-goals diff --git a/skills/ito-market-intelligence/SKILL.md b/skills/ito-market-intelligence/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ccc19ce4 --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/ito-market-intelligence/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,60 @@ +--- +name: ito-market-intelligence +description: Research prediction-market events, venues, underliers, liquidity, and news context for Itô basket workflows. Use for read-only market intelligence, API-gated Itô exploration, and source-grounded prediction-market briefings without investment advice or live trading. +origin: ECC +--- + +# Itô Market Intelligence + +Use this skill when a user wants prediction-market context, event discovery, +venue comparison, basket theme exploration, or an Itô API-backed market brief. + +This is a public teaser skill. It can work with public sources by default. Any +Itô-backed data call requires explicit API access through `ITO_API_KEY`. + +## Guardrails + +- Do not provide investment, legal, tax, or trading advice. +- Do not place, cancel, route, or simulate live orders. +- Do not infer the user's financial situation unless they provide it. +- Treat Polymarket, Kalshi, Itô, X, Exa, GitHub, and web data as source inputs, + not as truth by themselves. +- Separate facts, market-implied signals, and your interpretation. + +## Workflow + +1. Clarify the market theme, venue, geography, and time horizon. +2. Gather public market data from venue docs/APIs or source-grounded research. +3. If `ITO_API_KEY` is present and the user explicitly asks for Itô data, call + only read endpoints and state that access is gated. +4. Normalize event, underlier, liquidity, fee, resolution, and data-latency + differences across venues. +5. Produce a decision brief: + - market/event summary + - available venues and underliers + - liquidity and data-quality caveats + - relevant news/source context + - open questions before any user action + +## Useful Skill Chains + +- Use `deep-research` or `exa-search` for source discovery. +- Use `x-api` for public social signal discovery when X access is configured. +- Use `market-research` for market sizing, competitors, or business use cases. +- Use `prediction-market-risk-review` before any workflow touches user capital, + portfolio data, or execution-capable credentials. + +## Output Contract + +Default to a compact brief with source links and a clear caveat: + +```text +This is market intelligence, not investment or trading advice. +``` + +If access is missing, say: + +```text +Itô live basket/API data requires gated access. Request an ITO_API_KEY before +using Itô-backed reads. +``` diff --git a/skills/ito-trade-planner/SKILL.md b/skills/ito-trade-planner/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..7527c8b7 --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/ito-trade-planner/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,67 @@ +--- +name: ito-trade-planner +description: Build a non-advisory prediction-market trade planning worksheet for Itô or venue workflows. Use to inspect venues, underliers, constraints, order prerequisites, and manual execution steps without placing trades or recommending positions. +origin: ECC +--- + +# Itô Trade Planner + +Use this skill when a user wants a structured worksheet for a prediction-market +idea, basket adjustment, venue comparison, or manual execution plan. + +The skill is intentionally non-executing. It produces checklists and parameter +tables the user can review manually. + +## Guardrails + +- Do not say a trade is good, bad, optimal, or recommended. +- Do not provide investment advice or position sizing advice. +- Do not place, cancel, route, or sign orders. +- Do not request private keys, seed phrases, exchange passwords, or wallet + credentials. +- Require explicit user approval before any workflow moves from research to + execution-capable tooling. + +## Planning Workflow + +1. Restate the user's idea as a neutral hypothesis. +2. Identify markets, venues, underliers, resolution rules, fees, and data + freshness constraints. +3. If `ITO_API_KEY` is configured and requested, read Itô basket metadata. +4. Build a manual worksheet: + - market/underlier + - venue + - data source + - current observable price or status + - resolution rule + - liquidity caveat + - open questions + - manual action link or next review step +5. Run `prediction-market-risk-review` before discussing automation, keys, + venue auth, or capital constraints. + +## Allowed Language + +Use: + +- "manual planning worksheet" +- "questions to answer before acting" +- "observable venue data" +- "risk and constraint review" + +Avoid: + +- "you should buy/sell" +- "best trade" +- "guaranteed" +- "risk-free" +- "optimal size" + +## Output Contract + +End every plan with: + +```text +This is a planning worksheet, not investment or trading advice. Review venue +rules and make any trading decisions yourself. +``` diff --git a/skills/latency-critical-systems/SKILL.md b/skills/latency-critical-systems/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..c9e50629 --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/latency-critical-systems/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,73 @@ +--- +name: latency-critical-systems +description: Use for latency-sensitive systems such as realtime dashboards, market data, streaming agents, execution gateways, queues, caches, or HFT-like infrastructure where freshness and p95 latency matter. +origin: ECC +tools: Read, Write, Edit, Bash, Grep, Glob +--- + +# Latency Critical Systems + +Use this skill when the user cares about realtime behavior, hot paths, streaming +freshness, or execution speed. This includes HFT-like infrastructure, but the +skill is engineering-focused. It does not authorize live trading or financial +advice. + +## Split The Metrics + +Do not collapse everything into "fast." Track: + +- p50, p95, and p99 latency; +- throughput; +- freshness age; +- queue depth; +- cache hit rate; +- provider/API response time; +- browser render time; +- correctness under load; +- failure and retry behavior. + +## Map The Hot Path + +Write the path from user/event to final visible state: + +```text +source event -> provider API -> ingest worker -> queue -> cache -> edge route +-> client stream -> browser render -> user-visible state +``` + +Then measure each segment separately. + +## Optimization Order + +1. Remove unnecessary round trips. +2. Cache stable reads with freshness metadata. +3. Batch small calls and writes. +4. Move compute closer to the data or the user. +5. Split hot and cold paths. +6. Apply backpressure before queues grow unbounded. +7. Use streaming only when it improves freshness or user experience. +8. Add canaries for stale data, degraded providers, and bad cache state. + +## Verification + +Use live readbacks when a deployed surface exists: + +- HTTP timing and response headers; +- provider freshness timestamp; +- queue or job state; +- edge/cache state; +- browser verification for actual UI freshness; +- logs around retries and degraded mode. + +For market-data or execution-adjacent paths, also verify orderbook age, VWAP +assumptions, provider status, and kill-switch behavior before calling the path +ready. + +## Guardrails + +- Do not optimize latency by dropping required validation. +- Do not hide stale data behind fast cache hits. +- Do not claim millisecond behavior from client labels without measurement. +- Do not run live orders, destructive migrations, or customer-impacting deploys + without an explicit approval gate. +- Keep secrets and private payloads out of logs and benchmark artifacts. diff --git a/skills/parallel-execution-optimizer/SKILL.md b/skills/parallel-execution-optimizer/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9291590a --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/parallel-execution-optimizer/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,72 @@ +--- +name: parallel-execution-optimizer +description: Use when the user wants a task done much faster through parallel work, concurrent agents, batched tool calls, isolated worktrees, or many independent verification lanes without losing correctness. +origin: ECC +tools: Read, Write, Edit, Bash, Grep, Glob +--- + +# Parallel Execution Optimizer + +Use this skill when speed comes from doing independent work at the same time: +repo inspection, file reads, API checks, browser checks, build/test lanes, +deploy readbacks, or multi-worktree implementation passes. + +## Core Pattern + +Turn urgency into a dependency graph before acting. + +1. Define the objective and done signal. +2. Split work into lanes. +3. Mark each lane as parallel, sequential, or gated. +4. Run independent reads/checks together. +5. Keep writes isolated by file, worktree, branch, service, or dataset. +6. Merge only after evidence shows the lanes are compatible. +7. End with a verification table, not a vague speed claim. + +## Lane Matrix + +Before a large push, write a compact matrix: + +```text +Lane | Can run in parallel? | Write surface | Risk | Verification +Repo scan | yes | none | low | rg/git status outputs +Backend patch | maybe | src/api | medium | unit tests +Frontend patch | maybe | app/components | medium | browser screenshot +Deploy readback | after build | remote service | high | live URL + logs +``` + +Only run lanes in parallel when their write surfaces do not collide. + +## Execution Rules + +- Batch file reads, searches, status checks, and metadata queries. +- Use isolated worktrees for large unrelated implementation lanes. +- Start long-running tests, builds, backfills, and deploys in separate sessions, + then poll them deliberately. +- If a lane discovers a blocker that changes the plan, pause dependent lanes + and update the matrix. +- Never let a background process outlive the turn unless the user explicitly + asked for a continuing service. +- Do not parallelize destructive commands, migrations, writes to the same table, + or live customer-impacting deploys without an explicit gate. + +## Output Shape + +Use this when reporting: + +```text +Parallel execution result: +- Lanes run: 5 +- Lanes completed: 4 +- Blocked lane: deploy readback, waiting on DNS propagation +- Fast path found: batched repo scan + focused tests +- Verification: lint pass, unit pass, live smoke pass +``` + +## Failure Modes + +- More concurrency that creates conflicting edits. +- Benchmarking the tool instead of the task. +- Treating "fast" as done before correctness is proven. +- Forgetting to poll running sessions. +- Hiding skipped checks behind a success summary. diff --git a/skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md b/skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..8070bac5 --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,63 @@ +--- +name: prediction-market-oracle-research +description: Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice. +origin: ECC +--- + +# Prediction Market Oracle Research + +Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, +forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer. + +## Guardrails + +- Do not treat market prices as objective truth. +- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations. +- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the + implied signal. +- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes. +- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run `llm-trading-agent-security` + before granting any write authority. + +## Research Workflow + +1. Define the decision the signal is meant to inform. +2. Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues. +3. Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links. +4. Evaluate signal quality: + - liquidity + - spread + - market age + - trader/incentive concentration if known + - resolution authority + - geography or account restrictions +5. Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, + customer data, or internal KPIs. +6. Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated + decision. + +## Integration Patterns + +- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst. +- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics. +- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later. +- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a + threshold. +- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades. + +## Output Contract + +Use: + +1. decision context +2. market sources +3. signal quality +4. comparison sources +5. integration recommendation +6. caveats + +End with: + +```text +Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice. +``` diff --git a/skills/prediction-market-risk-review/SKILL.md b/skills/prediction-market-risk-review/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..45dad9ef --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/prediction-market-risk-review/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,60 @@ +--- +name: prediction-market-risk-review +description: Review prediction-market, basket, oracle, and trading-agent workflows for compliance, safety, data-quality, privacy, and execution risk. Use before any workflow handles venue auth, user portfolio data, API keys, or trade planning. +origin: ECC +--- + +# Prediction Market Risk Review + +Use this skill before a prediction-market workflow touches user financial +context, venue authentication, portfolio data, automation, or execution-capable +tools. + +## Review Gates + +### Advice Boundary + +- Confirm the output is informational. +- Remove buy/sell/hold/size recommendations. +- Keep manual user decision points explicit. + +### Venue And Regulatory Boundary + +- Identify venue terms, geography restrictions, account limits, and API rules. +- Flag betting, derivatives, securities, or commodities ambiguity for legal + review when relevant. +- Do not bypass venue restrictions or rate limits. + +### Data Quality + +- Check market liquidity, spread, resolution rules, stale prices, and source + timestamps. +- Separate public venue data from Itô gated data. +- Do not mix public and private sources without labels. + +### Security + +- Do not request or store private keys, seed phrases, or passwords. +- Keep `ITO_API_KEY` and venue API keys out of logs and docs. +- Use read-only scopes by default. +- Require circuit breakers, spend limits, dry runs, and human approval before + any private implementation adds execution. + +### Privacy + +- Minimize user portfolio, financial, and knowledge-base data. +- Redact private sources in public artifacts. +- Preserve only the fields needed for the review. + +## Output Contract + +Return: + +1. scope reviewed +2. pass/warn/fail findings +3. blocked actions +4. required mitigations +5. safe next step + +If any execution-capable step is requested, require a separate implementation +plan and explicit user approval. diff --git a/skills/recursive-decision-ledger/SKILL.md b/skills/recursive-decision-ledger/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..02f34a23 --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/recursive-decision-ledger/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +--- +name: recursive-decision-ledger +description: Use when the user asks for repeated rollouts, marked decision processes, high-dimensional search, stochastic optimization, local-optima exploration, ensemble comparison, or recursive reasoning with a visible evidence trail. +origin: ECC +tools: Read, Write, Edit, Bash, Grep, Glob +--- + +# Recursive Decision Ledger + +Use this skill when the user is trying to force deeper computation through +repeated rollouts or "Prime Gauss" style recursive prompting. Preserve the useful +part: repeated trials, prior memory, fresh information, and explicit marks. +Remove the unsafe part: pretending the loop proves certainty. + +## Ledger Contract + +Every rollout should record: + +- rollout id and timestamp; +- prior accepted winner and prior watchlist; +- fresh information ingested; +- search space size; +- model families or heuristics used; +- trial count and effective trial count; +- top candidates; +- decision marks; +- coherence marks against the prior ledger; +- promotion gate result. + +Prefer JSONL for append-only ledgers and Markdown for human summaries. + +## Rollout Loop + +1. Load the prior ledger. +2. Capture new information at time-step zero. +3. Run the bounded search. +4. Mark each candidate: accept, watch, reject, decay watch, or needs replay. +5. Compare winners against prior winners and latest marked rollout. +6. Downgrade candidates when drift, tail risk, stale data, or failed replay + invalidates the previous mark. +7. Append artifacts before summarizing. + +## Coherence Mark + +Include a compact coherence mark: + +```text +Ensemble matches prior winner: true +Recursive matches prior winner: false +Latest rollout match: true +Live promotion allowed: false +Reason: replay and freshness gates not satisfied +``` + +## Promotion Rules + +For trading, capital allocation, production deploys, migrations, or destructive +ops, recursive confidence is not approval. + +Default to paper, dry-run, read-only, preview, or staged mode unless the user +explicitly approves the live action and the repo/service gate supports it. + +Promote only when: + +- the candidate beats the prior accepted winner on the chosen metric; +- correctness and replay checks pass; +- risk limits are explicit; +- the evidence is durable; +- the user has approved the live step when needed. + +## Summary Shape + +Lead with the decision, not the drama: + +```text +Rollout 15 complete. The prior winner still holds, but edge deteriorated 17%. +Status: watch, not live. Next gate: 20 replay fills with fresh orderbook age +below threshold. +```